The most obvious trend is continued growth in AI search usage. As more people discover tools like ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity, and as these tools improve their interfaces and expand capabilities, the percentage of information-seeking behavior flowing through AI models will increase. This doesn't necessarily mean traditional search engines will disappear, but it does mean the traffic pie is being redivided, with AI search claiming an expanding slice.
下游的优势在于市场想象空间巨大,估值弹性高,一旦实现技术突破,有望获得垄断性收益。但风险远高于上下游:盈利周期极长,预计要到2030年才能实现现金流转正;技术路线失败率高,类似Meta元宇宙投入效果不佳的案例并不少见;且资本依赖性极强,一旦融资环境恶化,将直接冲击企业生存。
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A reprieve for cinemas but less content