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To address the security challenges brought by the militarization of Starlink by the United States, other spacefaring nations will inevitably adopt targeted armament development strategies, leading to a “spiral” arms race and space “security dilemma,” thereby impacting strategic stability in outer space. Unlike strategic weapons like nuclear weapons, Starlink is developed by the private sector and extensively integrated into the U.S. military’s offensive and defensive combat systems, with unique attributes of dual-use and integrated offense-defense. These technological attributes enhance the opacity and unpredictability of the Starlink system, making traditional arms control and verification mechanisms difficult to adapt and confidence-building arms control measures hard to implement. The impact of Starlink on arms race stability is mainly reflected in three aspects (see Figure 3).
to be discovered, and suddenly everyone is doing the same thing.